What did they know and when did they know it?

CNN is reporting that a 1999 Pentagon simulation projected that the United States would need at least 400,000 troops to secure Iraq after an invasion. Even then, the simulation suggested that Iraq could descend into chaos.

There wasn't any mention of the results of this simulation in Bob Woodward's State of Denial, nor did I find any reference to it in Ken Pollack's The Threatening Storm (which recommended both invasion and stabilization forces of about 300,000.) 

Margaret, was there any mention of this simulation in Fiasco

I'd be curious as to why the results of this simulation weren't more influential within the Pentagon planning process.  I know, I know, the question almost answers itself, but if I was Tommy Franks and I had the results of this in my back pocket, I might have been inclined to argue for a much larger force than he apparently did.

So what's the "Catholic angle" on this?  Goes to the just war criterion about likelihood of success and also whether the moral actors were invincibly ignorant of the probably outcomes of their actions.  Satisfied?

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