For the first time since right after the Iowa caucus, Obama is leading Hillary as the likely Democratic nominee on Intrade. Of course, I have serious doubts about the reliability of these prediction markets, but it's at least an indication of how people with money to blow are interpreting the results of Tuesday's primaries.UPDATE: The Rasmussen markets data agree with Intrade's -- 58% chance of Obama getting the nomination. This is interesting to me, in light of the conventional wisdom on Wed. that the primaries were a draw.UPDATE II: Iowa Electronic markets also concur.