As expected, Donald Trump marked the first full day of his administration by issuing an array of executive orders designed to inflict harm on migrants, asylum seekers, and transgender people; damage the environment and weaken public health; and dismantle the civil service. These chilling actions—some of which, like his summary suspension of birthright citizenship, have already prompted lawsuits—couldn’t help but overshadow the welcome news of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire signed during the closing days of the Biden presidency. Phase one took effect almost immediately, with the first three of an expected thirty-three Israeli hostages released by Hamas and ninety Palestinian prisoners returned by Israel. The ceasefire was co-negotiated by the outgoing administration and the new one, including Trump envoy Steven Witkoff, a billionaire real-estate developer sent to reinforce Trump’s message that there would be “hell to pay” if there wasn’t a deal in place by Inauguration Day. The terms of the ceasefire are essentially the same as those proposed by the Biden administration last May—when the United States’ considerable leverage could have saved the lives and infrastructure lost during the past nine months—but even some Democrats credited Trump’s ultimatum for finally bringing Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu around.

As of this writing, the peace is holding, but it remains fragile. Israel has suspended operations in Gaza, and over a period of six weeks, Hamas will incrementally release more hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Phase two calls for the liberation of all remaining hostages and the withdrawal of Israel from Gaza, but Israel has conditioned that step on the removal of Hamas from power. In phase three, Hamas would return the remains of hostages who were killed in exchange for a multiyear plan to rebuild Gaza under international supervision. The situation is volatile, and it’s hard to know whether every phase of the deal will play out as planned. Some far-right hard-liners in the Netanyahu government who oppose implementation of the planned second phase have already resigned, and more are threatening to do so, which could portend the resumption of the war. Further, Hamas has shown no signs of giving up political control. And though Israel is holding fire in Gaza, it is extending deadly raids into the West Bank, undermining efforts toward a more permanent peace with Palestine.

Further complicating the situation is Netanyahu’s legal jeopardy. He faces charges of genocide and war crimes from the International Criminal Court, as well as charges of corruption in Israel and the prospect of an inquiry into his government’s unpreparedness for the October 7 attacks. He has every political and legal incentive to keep the conflict going—both to satisfy the right-wing members of his governing coalition and to distract attention from his own record.

Regardless of the new U.S. administration’s work on the ceasefire deal, it does not appear as if it will act with greater clarity or fortitude—or concern for Palestinian lives—than the previous one. “It’s not our war, it’s their war,” Donald Trump said flippantly on Inauguration Day, seeming to want to rid himself of the conflict he has inherited. But his actions heavily favor Israel’s perceived interests in the region. He immediately rescinded the Biden administration’s hold on supplying the Israel Defense Forces with two-thousand-pound “bunker buster” bombs and lifted Biden-era sanctions on Israeli settlers who commit violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. His selection of Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel—much like his earlier decision to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018—suggests that Trump has no interest in pursuing a two-state solution. Witkoff has laid out a vague “four-pronged” approach to the Middle East: respect for sovereignty, economic prosperity as a bridge to stability, courageous diplomacy, and reciprocity and accountability. But he has offered no specifics on what any of that would entail.

Meanwhile, the administration has been silent on the humanitarian crisis caused by Israel’s leveling of Gaza; nor has it acknowledged the more than forty-six thousand Palestinians killed—probably an undercount by as much as 40 percent—over fifteen months of war. Tens of thousands of hungry and shellshocked Gazans are returning to their homes in places like Gaza City and Khan Younis, only to find rubble and devastation. The ceasefire has allowed more international aid to flow into Gaza, but it remains woefully insufficient.

Trump has made no secret of his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize, which he thinks he can win by extending the 2020 Abraham Accords. Normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and other Arab nations is a worthy endeavor, but it is unlikely to happen without a resolution of the Israel–Palestine conflict. If Israel expands its incursions into the West Bank, will there again be threats from Trump of “hell to pay”? Will he use the leverage over Netanyahu that Biden so conspicuously failed to use? Trump could promise to block further shipments of arms to Israel if it sabotages the ceasefire. He could also condemn Israel’s illegal settlement construction and demand its eventual withdrawal from the West Bank. He could even insist on a plan for Palestinian sovereignty that would help stabilize the Middle East, perhaps enlisting the support of partners like Saudi Arabia for peacekeeping and reconstruction in Gaza.

But all that would require taking some political risks on principle—with no guarantee of peace, much less a Peace Prize—and that has never been Trump’s approach to foreign policy. As long as there’s nothing in it for Trump personally, or as long as he thinks there’s too much to lose by standing up to the Israeli government, the United States will remain complicit in “their” war.