A blog by the magazine's editors and contributors


Election Day Predictions Open Thread

For those who are interested, I thought I would create an open thread for folks to offer predictions about the results tomorrow. I used to work in an office where we had a pool on this, March Madness-style. I suppose here we will limit it to bragging rights. Here are the categories:1. Swing State Results: CO, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, VA, WI2. Popular Vote Percentage Breakdown3. Electoral Vote Breakdown4. Tossup Senate Races: AZ, MA, MT, ND, NV, WI.5. Senate Partisan Composition6. Tiebreaker: House Partisan CompositionHere are mine for what it's worth:1. Swing State Results:Obama: CO, IA, NH, NV, OH, VA, WI Romney: FL, NC2. Popular Vote Percentage BreakdownObama: 51% - Romney: 49%3. Electoral Vote BreakdownObama: 303 - Romney: 2354. Tossup Senate Races:AZ: Flake (R); MA: Warren (D); MT: Tester (D); MA: Warren (D); ND: Heitkamp (D); WI: Baldwin (D)5. Senate Partisan CompositionD- 54; R - 466. House Partisan CompositionD - 200; R - 235



Commenting Guidelines

  • All

popular vote will be even tighter- 50% % to 49%- not know til at least next week...Electoral c. 285- 230 --with disputes on others through at least next week

R 53 O 47R 315 O 225House. Larger majority for republicansSenate. D 46 R. 52. I 2

popular vote Obama 51% Romney 49%. EC =300 Obama 239 Romney .. I agree w/ David P = a lot of disputes. [and hard feelings with no GOP accepting results and no gracious acceptance of outcome as Gore did.... 'for the good of the USA'.. ]

I am going with Nate Silver, though he seems to be willing to admit that he might be wrong.

If John Feehily is right un-employment should spike because all pollsters should be fired.

Popular vote: Obama: 49.6 Romney 49.0EC Obama 277 Romney 261 (O wins Wi, but R wins NH.Sen D = 52 R = 46 I = 2 (Saunders and King)House D = 201 R = 234

John Feehily:Are there polls which suggest these results? If so, please provide the links.And if there aren't, what's the basis for your forecast?

Swing States :Obama:IowaNevadaOhioRomney: FloridaVirginiaWisconsinNorth CarolinaNew Hampshire ColoradoPopular Vote:51 Romney; 49: ObamaElectoral College Vote271 (Romney) - 267 (Obama)Senate and House stay as they are.

FL will go to Obama + Peter's listPopular vote O 52, R 47EC O 332 R 206I'd add these to Senate toss ups:CT Murphy; IN Donnelly; MA Warren; MO McCaskill; VA Kaine. (Warren could use a 3rd win)Senate D 53 I 2 R 45House D 208 R 217

After three "wave" elections (2006, 2008, and 2010), I think the 2012 election is a reversion to the demographic mean (which slightly favors Dems). My predictions:1) O -- OH, VA, IA, WI, CO, NV, NH and R -- FL, NC2) O -- 50.2% and R -- 48.4%2) O -- 303 and R -- 2354) Senate Race: D's -- MA, WI and R's -- AZ, MT, ND5) 2013 Senate: D -- 52 and R -- 486) 2013 House: D -- 195 and R -- 240

PaddyPower the Irish bookmaker has Obama 2/9 and Romney 10/3.The Free Market has spoken.

I do not think Flake will win in AZ. And I am praying that Baldwin wins in WI.

My heart - not my head - tells me that the Dems still have a shot at taking back the House IF the Dems have been successful in targeting so-called "Tea Bagger" Republicans like Michele Bachmann (who stands a very good chance of losing her race).This would require a very broad victory by President Obama, even though his margin may be thin.If Nancy Pelosi is again Speaker, President Obama may have the opportunity in his second term to achieve epic legendary status.END THE FILIBUSTER, NOW!!!

I'm going with Nate Silver, except my home state of Montana, where the statewide fundamentals really don't favor Rehberg that much. Testor will win a squeaker late early in the morning after the urban precincts report. Dems do well in the statewide races.

Will go with Nate Silver's 538 Blog. (matches Mr. Goodin's above & adding Mr. Spoja's Montana race)Won't know anything definitive until late Wednesday; if then. Florida will again dominate with voter mess ups - Rep. suppression efforts, etc.; legal squabbles; voters till in line late into Tuesday nite. Ohio may join this mess to a degree - provisional ballots will need to be counted to confirm/verify)Agree - add McCaskill (MO - D); add Kaine (VA - D).Total vote - Obama 50.2% Romney 49.8%Senate - Democrats will maintain same majorityHouse - Republicans will lose seats but keep majority

Do you people not realize that the Redskins lost yesterday, which means the incumbent will lose tomorrow?

1. Swing State Results: CO, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, VA, WID: CO, NV, OH, WI; R: FL, IA, NC, NH, VA2. Popular Vote Percentage BreakdownD: 48.7, R: 49.63. Electoral Vote BreakdownD: 280, R: 2584. Tossup Senate Races: AZ, MA, MT, ND, NV, WI.AZ: R, MA: D, MT: D, ND: R, NV: R, WI: D5. Senate Partisan Composition50 D, 2 I, 48 R6. Tiebreaker: House Partisan CompositionN/A

Paddy Power has already paid out the bets on the Obama victory.The free market has spoken even louder--for what it's worth. Intrade similar.

I wonder whether Sandy has persuaded a noticeable number of the "US-leave-me-alone" folks to feel more kindly towards governmental assistance, especially along the East Coast and especially when they look back at Irene. This might be a turning point in our political history back to the Democrats.

To Ann Olivier's point: Rockaway which has figured so prominently in the discussion on fall-out from Hurricane Sandy is represented by Bob Turner (R.), who beat a very conservative Democrat to replace disgraced Rep. Anthony Weiner. How will this go in Tuesday's election? And this is the part of NYC that might be susceptible to "What's Wrong With Kansas," i.e., people who vote against their own interests.From Wikki: Previously, Turner was a media executive known for his success in the television talk show segment of the industry. Six years after retiring from his business career, he entered politics to run against [Anthony] Weiner in the November 2010 electionlosing, receiving 39 percent of the vote. Less than one year later, he defeated Democratic politician David Weprin 5247 in the special election battle for Weiner's seatbecoming the first Republican to represent the area in over eighty years. After the district was significantly changed during the redistricting process following the 2010 census, Turner announced he would challenge Democratic incumbent U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2012 election. He unsuccessfully sought the nomination of the Republican Party and the endorsement of New York's Conservative Party, losing each to Wendy E. Long.

Mark,I'm sure President Kerry will find some way to keep the Redskins curse at bay.

if there's somebody who has yet to decide, read this about Romney's "rent-a-charity" income. If Blomberg had published this earlier, the race might not be so close.

Oops, sorry - wrong thread.

Peter, if you're right that it's that close, and if we still have a representative democracy and not a majoritarian democracy in which the winner gets to spit on those who didn't vote for him, Obama will be at least morally bound to realize that he has only about half the people on his side and that he has no right to ignore them. Of course, he can ignore them, but if he does that, he'll have very hard sledding in his second term, and he'll richly deserve it.

Romney will take FL and VA.Obama will take O, CO, and probably all the other swing states.

Oops -- and Romney will take NC.

Popular vote: 50% Dem, 49% GOP, 1% Other

My friend in DC thinks Obama will take Virginia, and Tim Kaine will be its next Senator.Presumably and unfortunately Eric Cantor will hold his congressional seat and replace John Boehner as Speaker of the House.

Add new comment

You may login with your assigned e-mail address.
The password field is case sensitive.

Or log in with...

Add new comment