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New Pew Poll Tool

The folks over at the Pew Forum have a new interactivegraph that allows you to look at support for the two presidential candidates by religious affiliation and degree of religious practice.I know, you're dying to know what the Catholic numbers are, right? Among all Catholics, Obama has a 15 point lead. Since he's essentially tied with Romney among White Catholics, I suspect Obama is running up very large margins among Latino Catholics, but the tool doesn't provide that breakdown. Similarly, you can look at differences between those who frequently attend services and those who come less often, but you can't look at differences in attendance by denomination.And, yes, this post is a bit prosaic, but it's really just an excuse to see if I can get the blog interface to work on my smartphone. The answer is yes, but don't expect a lot of longform.

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For white mainline Protestants, the graph show that Mitt Romney held a lead throughout the year - until recently. I don't know exactly what that portends, but both parts of it interest me: that Romney was ahead in that category for most of the year; and that the gap has now closed in September such that it's now a dead heat.Also interesting how the mostly-unchurched and completely unaffiliated vote for Obama by tremendous margins - probably his biggest groups of supporters except for black Protestants. No doubt, there is a lot of overlap among the kinda- and completely-irreligious and young adults.

Despite the bishops' intervention in Presidential politics, my guess is 75% of religious women and 60% of clergy will vote for Obama. [Jim.. I say only half the deacons!]

Ed - it might be 75% of the deacons, too! (At least in Chicago)

Prediction: church going Catholics will choose Romney by at least 55%. Those regarded in this forum as more enlightened Catholics will go for Obama by margin of 60% or greater. What will matter most in terms of outcome will be which of these groups vote in greater numbers. That will likely differ from state to state.

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