Just posted on the homepage, the editors on the paucity of options in Syria, where fighting has killed seventy thousand people over two years and driven three million from their homes:

Only the most unrepentant advocates for the invasion of Iraq think the United States has the tools and the knowledge to fundamentally change the course of events in Syria. U.S. intervention might be warranted if there were a reasonable prospect that it would bring the killing to a quick end, but almost no one thinks that would happen under the current conditions.

Still, there are many eloquent, morally serious advocates calling for intervention, and their views should not be dismissed lightly. Most of them urge the United States to supply the rebels (but somehow not the jihadists) with advanced weapons, establish a no-fly zone, and create “humanitarian corridors” where refugees can be protected from Assad’s murderous militias. Even the administration’s most vocal critics, however, do not advocate sending in ground troops. Yet what if these partial measures were to fail, as they are likely to? At that point, the pressure to commit ground forces will be nearly impossible to resist, especially if U.S. military personnel are at risk. Containing Assad’s large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons presents an even more daunting problem. Bombing those facilities is not an option, and the best-case scenario for securing the weapons would require at least seventy-five thousand U.S. troops and would most likely result in significant civilian and U.S. military casualties. 

Read the whole thing here.

Newt Gingrich co-produced and starred, with his wife, in the documentary Nine Days that Changed the World in praise of Pope John Paul II’s 1979 pilgrimage to Poland and the pope’s role in defeating communism. I don’t think Gingrich Productions will do a similar documentary on John Paul’s pilgrimage to the Middle East and his effort to make peace in that region, though. Gingrich’s views on this are diametrically opposed to the late pope’s.

That was shown starkly in an interview he gave to The Jewish Channel. Raising doubts about the widely supported two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute,  he said:

… remember there was no Palestine as a state. It was part of the Ottoman Empire. And I think that we’ve had an invented Palestinian people, who are in fact Arabs, and were historically part of the Arab community. And they had a chance to go many places. And for a variety of political reasons we have sustained this war against Israel now since the 1940’s, and I think it’s tragic.

Compare this remark about the Palestinians as an “invented” people to what John Paul said when he visited Bethlehem in 2000. On his arrival, he said:

No one can ignore how much the Palestinian people have had to suffer in recent decades. Your torment is before the eyes of the world. And it has gone on too long … The Holy See has always recognized that the Palestinian people have the natural right to a homeland.  (His 1984 letter Redemptionis Anno put a finer point on it, referring to Palestinians’ “natural right in justice to find once more a homeland.”)

Read the rest of this entry »

Just posted to the homepage: Nicholas P. Cafardi’s article on scandal in Philadelphia. (Also check out our editorial on unrest in the Middle East, and Dionne’s latest column on Wisconsin.)

“Netanyahu, who is essentially a righwing Republican in American terms, took advantage of the victory of the Republicans in the House of Representatives to simply defy Obama. He has refused even to present a proposal for a freeze on further colonization to his cabinet! This notwithstanding an offer by Obama to give Israel advance fighter jets in return. The Guardian revealed that the Obama administration had pressed the Israelis to come up with a map with clearly defined borders of what they claimed as Israeli territory. The US hoped that such a clearly drawn border would discourage further Israeli settlement in what would surely be Palestinian territory. Netanyahu blew Obama off and refused to consider starting with the shape of the borders.”

http://www.juancole.com/2010/12/israelis-jettison-peace-talks-in-favor-of-massive-land-theftbrazil-argentina-recognize-palestinian-state.html

“BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Argentina announced Monday that it recognizes the Palestinian territories as a free and independent state within their 1967 borders, a step it said reflects frustration at the slow progress of peace talks with Israel.

President Cristina Fernandez informed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of the decision, which follows a similar move by Brazil, Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman said.”

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jSJuERC8IRVch1Jq7NVRjLMWqMSQ?docId=6d0d0a3bd0234dc089643fca95c7f64c

The world toddles ahead while the U.S. fiddles.

Stephen Walt: What’s Plan B in the Middle East? Or maybe it’s Plan C…
Here

“New WikiLeaks revelations show Ireland blocking U.S. arms to Israel
Cable sent in 2006 indicates that the Irish government has been making it increasingly difficult for American weapons shipments to Israel to pass through its airport.”
And, of course, Ha’aretz publishes it! http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/new-wikileaks-revelations-show-ireland-blocking-u-s-arms-to-israel-1.328298

U.S. officials say that Jerusalem is part of the moratorium on building; Netanyahu has said otherwise to his coalition partners. Who will prevail?

“But the U.S. official told Haaretz that “If the moratorium deal goes through, we will continue to press for quiet throughout East Jerusalem during the 90 days, regardless of what Bibi [Netanyahu] is telling Shas now.”

“The official added that President Barack Obama had committed in an oral message to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas last April that the U.S. expects both sides to refrain from “actions that would seriously undermine trust,” including in East Jerusalem, and would respond with “steps, actions, or adjustments in policy” to any such provocative actions as long as negotiations are underway.”

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-official-israel-must-refrain-from-east-jerusalem-construction-during-freeze-1.325378

UPDATE: As I suspected the Clinton and Obama may not be in agreement about the offer: “The Israeli official said there appeared to be a disconnect between the White House and State Department with Obama unhappy that Clinton had offered so much for such a minimal concession.” http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-ready-to-offer-israel-written-guarantees-if-it-would-restart-peace-talks-1.325659

UPDATE2: Stephen Walt has some thoughts about how to make the 90 days work: “Here’s my suggestion: assuming direct talks do resume under U.S. auspices, tell the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority that the United States is going to keep a very careful record of who did and said what, and the United States will not hesitate to go public in the event that anybody starts making ridiculous demands, indulging in delaying tactics, or refusing to make reasonable concessions. Unlike Camp David 2000, where nothing was written down and no maps were exchanged (at Israel’s insistence), this time we are going to prevent anybody from doing a lot of spin-control after the fact. In other words, the United States tells everyone we are going to act like an honest broker for a change, and if either side refuses to play ball, we are going to expose their recalcitrance in the eyes of the international community. Most importantly, this declaration can’t be a bluff: if the talks bog down, the administration has to be prepared to go public.” http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/11/16/a_modest_proposal_for_the_middle_east_peace_talks

Grasping at straw???

The final details of the U.S. bribe to Israel for a 90-day moratorium on settlement construction remains to be announced, but there seems to be no end to the earmarks Washington is providing our stealth 51st state.

Under the headline, “U.S. taxpayers are paying for Israel’s West Bank occupation,” Ha’aretz reports: “Travelers along the “original” West Bank roads, the ones enabling drivers to bypass Palestinian villages, can see signs declaring “USAID from the American People.”

“The roads are one of the initiatives of the United States Agency for International Development for building infrastructure in underdeveloped countries. Israel has already proudly left the club of developing countries and is not among the clients of USAID. Nevertheless, it appears the Smith family of Illinois is making the occupation a little less expensive for the Cohen family of Petah Tikva.”
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/features/u-s-taxpayers-are-paying-for-israel-s-west-bank-occupation-1.324941

And let us recognize that Americans can find out more about our government’s policy from Ha’aretz than we can from our own media. Always worth a look:  http://www.haaretz.com/

And then a provocative analysis in Foreign Policy of the deal we are cutting with Netanyahu for the brief and final moratorium: “Not one cent for tribute: Obama’s embarrassing gift to Israel” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/11/15/not_one_cent_for_tribute_obamas_embarrassing_gift_to_israel Do the historians among us find the analogy accurate?

Glenn Kessler of the WashPost has this about the deal, “Call it a triumph of hope over experience”: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/15/AR2010111506596.html (HT: Pat Lang, http://turcopolier.typepad.com/ )

Glenn Greenwald at Salon has this: “Soon-to-be GOP House Majority Leader Eric Cantor met on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — the same day when the actual U.S. Secretary of State met with Netanyahu — and vowed that he and his GOP colleagues would protect and defend Israeli interests against his own Government. According to a statement proudly issued by Cantor’s own office:

“Regarding the midterms, Cantor may have given Netanyahu some reason to stand firm against the American administration.

“Eric stressed that the new Republican majority will serve as a check on the Administration and what has been, up until this point, one party rule in Washington,” the readout continued. “He made clear that the Republican majority understands the special relationship between Israel and the United States, and that the security of each nation is reliant upon the other.”
http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/11/13/israel/index.html

And this from Laura Rozen of Politico: “Last night, Netanyahu met in New York for over an hour with incoming House Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who is set to become the highest ranking Jewish member of Congress in history. The meeting took place at New York’s Regency Hotel, and included no other American lawmakers besides Cantor. Also attending on the Israeli side were Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren, and Netanyahu’s National Security Advisor Uzi Arad.

“Israeli sources characterized a one-on-one meeting between an Israeli prime minister and a lone American lawmaker as unusual, if not unheard of. Cantor’s office did not think that Cantor and the Prime Minister had held a one-on-one meeting before.”  http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/1110/Before_Clinton_meeting_Cantors_oneonone_with_Bibi_.html?showall

UPDATE: There had to be back-peddling on this and M.J. Rosenberg has the back pedal and why it’s not going to work. http://politicalcorrection.org/fpmatters/

UPDATE 2: Eric Cantor’s spokesperson, and the man who wrote the press release that said Cantor and the Republicans would serve as a check on Obama, attacks the media for misconstruing his sentences describing the meeting. More backpedaling it seems to me but judge for yourself:  http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45184.html

Tom Friedman on an Israeli TV show had this to say about Israeli-U.S. relations: ” You are losing the American people,” Friedman warned. “Not to dislike, not to opposition – they are fed up, fed up with the Palestinians, believe me, fed up with the Mideast in general.

“But they’re also fed up with Israel. When they see their president working hard to try to tee up an opportunity. All we’re asking is just test – go all the way to test whether you have a real partner.”  http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/a-special-place-in-hell/bibi-tom-friedman-and-u-s-jews-divesting-from-israel-1.323586

Since I’m never sure Friedman knows what he’s talking about, I have to wonder if he knows what he’s talking about here.

UPDATE: And if you’re into the Realpolitik view of foreign relations, here is Stephen Walt on the subject: “Indonesia is a potentially crucial partner for the United States (if you want to see why, take a look at the sea lanes in Southeast Asia), and it is also a moderate Muslim country with history of toleration. Yet the Palestinian issue resonates there too, and makes it harder for the Indonesian government to openly embrace the United States. As Kaplan notes in his Times op-ed, “China also plays on the tension between the West and global Islam in order to limit American influence there. That is why President Obama’s mission to rebrand America in the eyes of Muslims carries benefits that go far beyond Indonesia and the Middle East.” http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/blog/2072

The endlessly elusive peace talks between Palestinian President Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are in limbo. The apparent need of Netanyahu to negotiate a further freeze with his cabinet is no doubt masking his efforts to ring out even more concessions from the Obama Administration via Dennis Ross.

But here is a smart analysis of where that may be going along with a bracing critique of the Palestinians and some analysis of what to do when the two-state solution passes into the dust bin of history. If this happens, new ideas and strategies will emerge, as this site suggests: http://mitchellplitnick.com/2010/10/08/giving-up-on-obama/#more-471

My intermittent posts here on Israel and the ensuing comments show how important it is that all of us keeping reading and thinking about a real peace settlement instead of clinging to unstinting support of what Israeli politicians, and their U.S. allies, decide is in the best interest of the United States. Time for the tail to stop wagging the dog!

M.J. Rosenberg sums up the whole mess in the following brief analysis, so you can skip all the links below (he suggests that if Dennis Ross had offered Alaska, Netanyahu might have gone for the deal): http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/03/tell_israel_freeze_settlements_or_we_slow_down_the/#more

The White House has denied the following story. But on the grounds that the ideas were floating around somewhere (maybe in Dennis Ross’s head), we can see how desperate Mitchell, Clinton, and Ross may be as the Palestinians leave the table.

“An article published on Wednesday on the website for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy by David Makovsky, a researcher with ties to Dennis Ross, Barack Obama’s chief advisor on the Middle East, reported that Obama had written a letter Netanyahu in which Obama offered to support the presence of Israel Defense Forces soldiers in the Jordan Valley even after the establishment of a Palestinian state, if Israel would agree to a two month settlement building freeze. …

“Obama’s letter was said to include a long list of American favors in exchange for an extension of the settlement building freeze….

“Other commitments that Obama reportedly offered Netanyahu in the letter include an agreement not to ask for any more building freeze extensions, an agreement to veto any anti-Israel UN Security Council resolution in the next year, and….

“Obama’s letter was said to include additional commitments, including a series of guarantees to prevent the smuggling of weapons and missiles into a Palestinian state, a lengthy period of interim security arrangements in the Jordan Valley and a comprehensive regional defense pact for protection from Iran to follow the establishment of the Palestinian state.”

And much, much more!

The denial   http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/white-house-obama-did-not-send-letter-to-netanyahu-1.316491

The original story: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/obama-in-personal-appeal-to-netanyahu-extend-settlement-freeze-for-two-months-1.316450

And the original story, which refers to this as a “draft” letter: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3256

And here is the NYTimes version: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/world/middleeast/01mideast.html?_r=1&hp

And there’s more: Netanyahu has rejected an offer written by: “Obama adviser Dennis Ross, who is the moving force behind the letter, is believed to have encouraged Obama to change his policy toward Netanyahu in order to come off as friendlier. Ross reportedly worked with Barak and Molho on the letter during the UN General Assembly in New York.” http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/pm-rejects-u-s-guarantees-in-exchange-for-renewing-freeze-1.316517

UPDATE: MJ Rosenberg sums up: ”So it’s back to the drawing board.  Maybe Ross can give Bibi one of the 50 states (Alaska!).”  http://politicalcorrection.org/fpmatters/201010010010

When your very best friend betrays you once again, you’ve got to wonder how come they’re still your best friend. You shower them with riches, good will, and unstinting support. Yet Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli PM, has once again told the U.S. to go **** ********! Time to find truer friends.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-envoy-speeds-to-mideast-in-effort-salvage-peace-talks-1.316122

http://www.juancole.com/2010/09/netanyahu-blows-off-us-mahmoud-abbas-pleads-for-settleme-freeze.html

UPDATE: The realist view: “One of the great myths of Middle East diplomacy is the old cliché that “the United States can’t want it more than the parties do.” This excuse for inaction is trotted out whenever the United States fails to exercise the enormous potential leverage at its disposal, and it’s just plain silly. There’s no reason why the United States can’t want a settlement more than Israel or the Palestinians do, particularly if the two sides are so mired in dysfunctional politics or old Likudnik dreams that they need to be pushed hard to make a deal. Unfortunately, this conflict isn’t just about them; it’s also about us. And when U.S. interests are at stake, we can want a solution just as much — and maybe even more — than they do.” Stephen Walt

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/27/settling_for_more_settlements

UPDATE: Israel’s foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman has his own policy on negotiations: they seem to include the removal of Israeli Arabs from Israel. Didn’t we call this ethnic cleansing in Kosovo? http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/world/middleeast/29nations.html?ref=world

And there’s this: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-jews-outraged-by-lieberman-s-un-speech-on-population-exchange-1.316298