Rubio
There’s really nothing much more comical/offensive than reading political analysts (invariably Anglos) speculating about how Romney picking Marco Rubio has the potential to peel the Latino vote away from Obama. The stupidity that this implicitly attributes to the Latino electorate(s) is genuinely staggering.
First, it assumes that Latinos have such short memories and that they are going to be so enthralled at the thought of a “Latino” (I’ll explain the scare quotes below) occupying a largely ceremonial post that they will suddenly ignore the anti-Latino rhetoric and legislation that Republicans in state-after-state have been championing for the past 24 months. Marco Rubio is not going make Latinos forget which party has made millions of Latinos nervous about traveling or going to the grocery store or taking their children to school. Marco Rubio is not going to make Latinos forget which party demonized Sonia Sotomayor during her confirmation hearing as a racist. This is not to discount Obama’s historic campaign of deportations and its impact on Latino communities, but the likely effect of that policy on Latino voting has already been priced into the market, so to speak. And the opportunity that it presented to Republicans to make inroads into the Latino communities has been squandered by the sheer hatefulness of the rhetoric and policies that Republicans have hurled our way since 2010. There’s also the little problem of Mitt Romney’s enthusiastic embrace during the primaries of the authors of these policies. Obama’s badness on immigration doesn’t mean that we can’t recognize something worse when we see it.
Second, the Rubio-luring-Latino-voters narrative ignores the great diversity among the Latino communities. Rubio is a Cuban-American. Most Latinos in the U.S. are Mexican (by a wide margin), followed by Puerto Ricans, and El Salvadorans. Cubans come in fourth, and they are more concentrated geographically than the others (with the exception of the Puerto Ricans). They also tend to be seen as “different” by other Latino groups because of the unique circumstances of their arrival in this country. I can’t count how many times Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans have told me that they do not consider Cubans to be “Latino” in the full sense of the term. Although the Latino category is a problematic one for any number of reasons, I do think it has some validity in certain contexts. Nevertheless, to expect the selection of a Cuban-American as VP to be a game changer in this election is to ignore the very real fissures among the Latino communities. Rubio may make a difference at the margins (and, if picked, he may well have an impact on the race in Florida), but he’s not going to pull a huge chunk of, say, Mexican-American voters in California over to the R column.
OK. I just had to get that off my chest. Thanks for letting me vent.
My experience in new York with Cubanos was that they looked down on other latinos as less educated and hence lower.
What that means in terms of the elction I’m not sure, but Romney (despite disclaimers from his suporters) -see last night’s Anderson Cooper for example) is a major flip-flopper on imigration.
Here in NM, with a large latinoi (mainly Mexican) population he trails Obama by big magin.
I think Romney should consider Jan Brewer for V.P. The image of her sticking her finger in the President’s face would make a great poster.
As to Rubio: there were two young women on Chris Matthews’ show yesterday, Latina, I think, although he kept interrupting them and talking over them. I think one of them, a student, maybe, at the U. of Texas, tried to make the point you make Eduardo, about how Mexican-Americans don’t identify with Cuban-Americans in general or Rubio in particular.
OK, you got this off your chest.
If Mitt Romney is looking for a game changer, he should follow John McCain’s example and pick a woman, not a man, as his running mate. But what impact is Romney going to be looking for? Is he going to look for a VP candidate who will fire up the Republican base, as Sarah Palin did? Or is he looking for a VP candidate who will attract so-called independents and fickle Democrats?
My guess is he’s going to pick a person – and the candidate names I’ve heard are men – who can help him deliver a battleground state like Ohio or Virginia. Just a guess.
Btw, here is Karl Rove explaining why I’m an idiot. :-)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304811304577365870484193362.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
@Jim Pauwels (4/26, 12:10 pm) Don’t feel too badly about it. In the same column Rove concludes that the country was “better served” by the selection of Dick Cheney to run as VP in 2000.
Romney should pick Hologram Tupac as his running mate. It would be really humanizing.
Immigration is another issue that separates Cubans from the rest of Latinos. Due to the ‘wet foot/dry foot’ policy, any Cuban how makes it onto the mainland is granted residency, is not considered an illegal or even an undocumented alien, and, baring criminal background, is not subject to deportation. This diminishes the credibility of Cuban American politicians with respect to topics such as The Dream Act — they already have their Dream Act in place.
“who” not “how.”
Marco Rubio is the “ethnic” cultural response for Republicans to Barack Obama so that they can feel better, more comfortable about their prejudices.
Unless Romney is totally desperate, Rubio will not be on the Republican ticket. Republicans would never pick national candidates who have vowels at the end of their names. Remember, their base LOVES Sarah Palin. Think Barbara Bush?
Besides, Rubio appears, by his own account, to be an “anchor baby.” I don’t think the immigrant phobic Republicans could contort themselves into voting essentially for the child of Cuban “boat people.”
And, Rubio has a very confusing relationship with Catholicism – Republicans already have Mittens who is loathed to talk about the importance of his Mormon religious identity. Republicans don’t do rainbow colors – strictly white bread.
Rubio is not going to happen. Think something more corporate, more country club on the Repubs’ ticket. If Romney picks Ryan, it will be a good indication that the Repubs are going to double down on appealing to their corporate masters. My guess is that Mittens will go for something safe and plain, like Portman – who is from Ohio [still don't think the Repubs can carry Ohio after Kasick has stunk up the place the last two years].
The time for Marco Rubio is not the 2012 presidential election as the vice presidential republican candidate. While Rubio is intelligent, articulate, talented and very appealing as a politician, he is too young and inexperienced. He is far better off, at some point, to run for Governor of Florida, get more experience, then think about higher office.
Romney would be wise to choose Condoleezza Rice as his VP. She is black, a woman, intelligent and has the type of foreign policy experience that Romney needs. I have no idea whether Rice would be interested in this largely ceremonial position. Nevertheless, she would be a good VP.
“Marco Rubio is the “ethnic” cultural response for Republicans to Barack Obama so that they can feel better, more comfortable about their prejudices.”
Wow. This is a real tolerant comment from prejudices, huh? I can imagine the response if a “conservative” commenter hear made this remark.
Rice is too closely associated with Dubya. They’re still friends. Same with Gov. Bush of Florida. Gov. Bush himself might have deprived Gore of the presidency the last go-round. Both drag in too many bad memories.
Why not Robert Gates? (He is probably sick of D. C., though.) Or Senator Olympia Snowe. She’s probably to moderate for the RNC. Same with Jon Huntsman, and he’s also a Mormon. Giuliani might not be too old, and he’s known to be particularly good in a crisis.
Not that I’m going to vote for any of them.
The Latino vote will swing Republican without the need for Rubio, because of a backlash from the President interfering in the Zimmerman case.
Mark Proska:
What? The Zimmerman case will influence the Latino/a vote? How so?
I’ll just repeat my analysis of a few months ago: the perfect match for Governor Romney (and this is confirmed by eHarmony.com) is someone who brings geographic balance, has red state/small town appeal, is Evangelical, can stir Tea Party passions, looks comfortable with a rifle stock planted in her shoulder and has the instincts of a mako shark. In short, Sarah Palin.
“The Latino vote will swing Republican without the need for Rubio, because of a backlash from the President interfering in the Zimmerman case.”
Tinfoil hat might be on a bit tight there, good buddy.
Here’s another little piece on veep picks. By these criteria, Rubio would seem to be a pretty poor choice.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/ct-oped-0426-chapman-20120426,0,3101959.column
Being redunant, I cannot convince myself anymore than a few Latinos will be challenged noticing a Kenyan Martian has entered the room. Fact is, I don’t believe race or planet of origin is the issue. The confusion most likely arrives from recognizing a half alien/half not so alien is actually intelligent (whatever that is) and compassionate. When tossing around donuts and telling folks they are spaceships having an intelligent (whatever that is) person walk into the scene and start talking adds confusion. Mine is aluminum foil, by golly, and I ain’t givin’ up for nobody!
From what I see in heavily Latino NM, Mark is living on another planet.
Wonder who gave 200G’s to Zimmermean BTW and why?
From a Republican Cuban-American friend living in Yourami:
“I agree with what Mr. Peñalver has to say. He neglects to mention that Cubans tend to be mostly republican (even if younger ones may drift away, but certainly not all or perhaps even a majority). Up north, though, Cubans tend to be Democrats. Note that the only two “hispanic (ugh)” senators that I know of are Cuban-American, one a Democrat from NJ and the other Rubio. Union City, NJ, is a sort of Cuban enclave, but nowhere of the size or heft as South Florida.”
See also:
http://www.economist.com/node/21553457
Immigration politics The nativist millstone
Republican policies on illegal immigration are annoying Latinos and becoming a serious handicap in the presidential election
I’ve known three Cubans. Two were were from a rich family, and one was middle-class. It seems that many, even most of the rich Cubans settled in the Miami area. They left in a hurry after Castro, and, as might be expected, they’re generally extremely conservative, though not nearly as rich as they used to be. I can see how they don’t identify with other immigrants. Very, very clannish. At least they used to be. The younger generations might have changed some.
I think the next election is going to be decided along class lines (which has a huge overlap w/race). A great many low- and moderate-income people have been directly and disproportionately harmed by this enduring recession, and they’re going to vote based on who is more to blame/ who can better help them out of it.