It’s the Youth Vote- Not the Catholic Vote- that Obama Needs
April 23, 2012, 9:25 pm
Posted by Cathleen Kaveny
According to this study,
http://publicreligion.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Millennials-Survey-Report
Obama may be better off getting milennials of all faiths and none to the polls than worrying about what Catholics- liberal or conservative– think about him per se.
I think the key vote may be the Nones – the growing number of people who say they don’t have a religious affiliation. This group skews young. And many are former Catholics. Mark Gray of CARA did an interesting blog post on the “Nones” recently:
http://nineteensixty-four.blogspot.com/2012/03/new-catholic-vote-quiet-rise-of.html
If I were a youth, I’d not give it to him. This is not the change I’d have voted for.
@Paul Moses (4/23, 10:19 pm) Thanks for that link—interesting stuff.
Another way of looking at the same data is the work done by Ruy Texeira (sometimes with John Judis, as in their book several years ago, “The Emerging Democratic Majority”). Texeira looks at demographic and voting trends in recent decades and concludes that the Democratic Party in increasingly built around female, minority, young and college-educated voters.
As women make up a majority of the population, and as minority, young and college-educated voters are all increasing percentages of the electorate, Texeira concludes that—barring major changes in either party—Democrats will slowly but steadily build a more solid electoral base over the coming decade (as they have over the past decade).
If I were a youth, I’d vote for him. However, even though I am not a youth I plan to vote for him. Republicans are up to no good. Vote against Republicans running for elective office, I say.
Paul Glastris at the Washington Monthly recently did a Top 50 list of Obama’s accomplishments. (http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/march_april_2012/features/obamas_top_50_accomplishments035755.php)
Among the accomplishments that might have particular resonance with young voters are:
#1 – Health Care Reform (children can stay on parent’s insurance to age 26)
#3 – Wall Street Reform (includes the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau)
#4 – Ended the Iraq War
#9 – Repealed “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”
#14 – Kicked Banks Out of Federal Student Loan Program, Expanded Pell Grants
#20 – Increased Support For Veterans
#24 – Signed Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act
#28 – Expanded National Service
#38 – Cracked Down on Bad For-Profit Colleges
#40 – Expanded Hate Crimes Protection
#45 – Expanded Health Coverage for Children
From the executive summary of the study that Cathleen cites:
“Like Americans overall, college-age Millennials (age 18-24) are most likely to cite jobs and unemployment as a critical issue facing the country. Majorities also report that the federal deficit (55%) and education (54%) are critical issues facing the nation. Only about 1-in-5 say that social issues like abortion (22%) or same-sex marriage (22%) are critical issues.”
I’d suggest that every single one of these findings is not good news for President Obama, and presents an opportunity on which the Romney campaign could capitalize, if it has the political ability (a question which is very much up in the air).
I look forward to reading the PublicReligion piece…found the 1964 article insightful for its bullet points because Obama’s “track record” in question contains several points that Catholics might reasonably favor in good faith. Catholics needn’t favor school voucher systems or making Catholic colleges exempt from discrimination laws, and many are adamantly in favor of an investigation of the Vatican Bank.
In terms of Obama winning the youth vote, watch for today’s announcement that he is going to fight for lower interest rates on student loans, as opposed to the current Congress which has not passed an extension of the current low rates. Youth will vote for the candidate who keeps more money in their pockets–they view politics as primarily about the economy and jobs, as suggested above, and Romney has yet to suggest anything that would help their daily needs directly.
For all the periodic blather about “the youth vote”, I am not sure it usually amounts to much.
For all the periodic blather about “the earth being round”, I am not sure that it usually amounts to much.
Apathy reigns?
Just for the record, the “youth vote” (generally, ages 18 – 29) increased nationally in 2008 and arguably made a significant difference in some states. From the Pew Research Center:
“Voters ages 18-29 turned out at a higher rate in 2008 than in 2004 in several battleground states. Young voters increased their share of the total electorate by five points in Indiana, four points in North Carolina and Virginia — all of which experienced sizable increases in overall voter turnout — and by lesser amounts in six other key states. By contrast, the young declined as a share of the total in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Nationally, young voters were estimated to be 18% of the total, up slightly from 17% four years ago. ” http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1031/young-voters-in-the-2008-election
Similarly, the decrease in the youth vote in 2010 (to only 60% of what it had been two years earlier) also had an impact in some races.
Part of the significance of the youth vote is that it has, in recent years, tended to break strongly for Democratic candidates (e.g., 68-29 for Obama in 2008).