Triangulate this! UPDATE
David Ignatius has a column in the WashPost (Feb. 2) that lays out various scenarios for attacks-no attacks on Iran. He quotes Defense Secretary Panetta predicting an Israeli attack on Iran in the late Spring. There’s a strong note that they’d have to do it on their own, but….
A lot of leaking is going on including by Ignatius. So what is going on? Campaign season? Republican fodder for attacking Obama? Mere saber rattling? Preparing the U.S. for war?
UPDATE: Leslie Gelb, former Times reporter and former president of the Council on Foreign Relations ends a piece on upping the diplomacy with this: “And here we Americans are in a presidential election year. At these times, the straps of restraint on tough talk and tough action are almost always loosened. That’s especially true when Democrats hold the White House—Democrats who are quadrennially scared stupid by the prospect of Republicans accusing them of being lily-livered liberals and selling out the nation’s security. I’d like to see President Obama show the courage of offering a solid peace proposal instead of just drawing chest-thumping red lines. Meantime, he doesn’t have to withdraw any sanctions or any “red lines.” Just cut the usual diplomatic and political baloney, and try. With so much pressure now being applied on Iran, it might work. In the midst of a barrage of economic and military pressures, it is not a sign of weakness or lack of resolve to offer peace. It is classic negotiating from strength.” Daily Beast
I don’t have answers to any of your questions, just more fodder for speculation in this article by Gareth Porter: http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=106621
Lead: “Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey told Israeli leaders Jan. 20 that the United States would not participate in a war against Iran begun by Israel without prior agreement from Washington, according to accounts from well-placed senior military officers.
Dempsey’s warning, conveyed to both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak, represents the strongest move yet by President Barack Obama to deter an Israeli attack and ensure that the United States is not caught up in a regional conflagration with Iran.
But the Israeli government remains defiant about maintaining its freedom of action to make war on Iran, and it is counting on the influence of right-wing extremist views in U.S. politics to bring pressure to bear on Obama to fall into line with a possible Israeli attack during the election campaign this fall.
Obama still appears reluctant to break publicly and explicitly with Israel over its threat of military aggression against Iran, even in the absence of evidence Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon.
Dempsey’s trip was highly unusual, in that there was neither a press conference by the chairman nor any public statement by either side about the substance of his meetings with Israeli leaders. Even more remarkable, no leak about what he said to the Israelis has appeared in either U.S. or Israeli news media, indicating that both sides have regarded what Dempsey said as extremely sensitive.
The substance of Dempsey’s warning to the Israelis has become known, however, to active and retired senior flag officers with connections to the JCS, according to a military source who got it from those officers. “
From the Ignatius piece, regarding possible ways to dial down the possibility of an Israeli strike:
“or the United States could step up its covert actions to degrade the program so much that Israelis would decide that military action wasn’t necessary.”
… meaning that we could assassinate more Iranian scientists? What a dirty world this is.
… and there may be need of another attack in a few years…
No.. do not give a green light for Israel to go down this path…
Part of the puzzle: Obama and Panetta and the Pentagon appear to be resisting war with Iran, but what about our Congress?
So far as I can see, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans in Congress are prepared to do anything that puts real pressure on the Israeli government. Of course, initiating an attack on Iran would be disastrous for the entire region, but apparently Congressmen find the price of resisting the Israeli government, price in terms of dollars, public relations, etc. too steep for them to pay. And apparently any number of our citizens, evangelicals, etc., are determined to see that the price remains sky high.
Is it possible that the Obama Administration is engaging an intentional disinformation campaign in hopes of further “distablizing” an already shaky regime in Iran?
There have been reports of undercover black ops in Iran for awhile now: Large explosions near reported nuclear research facilities; cyber attacks; disruptions of financial markets and banks.
This could be either Israelis or American in origin. In either case, it’s a lot better than a hot war of invasion.
Congress needs to get real on this. How about a march on Congress by soldiers wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan. Would that sober them up?
IMO bernard is right on Congess, Jim is to optimistic about “destabilizing”, and the point of Panetta’s statement was to make the Israelis think twice.
” Would that sober them up? ”
Nope. War is big business – the only real growth industry in the US and many European countries.
Margaret Steinfels’ idea is provocative, but perhaps these wounded veterans are not so disposed. However, for those of us who are, it may not be too early. I expect another Gulf of Tonkin — modern style… or some new “yellow cake” report to set the stage.
DP: “Perhaps these wounded veteran are not so disposed.” Good point.
So, could we carry photos of them? Tricky, I suppose. This is a piece of our policy that grinds: the military go to war, while Congress sits on its collective duff.
The Iranian regime is obviously bellicose and dangerous, but as many have pointed out, the continued Israeli home destruction in the West Bank — over 1100 persons displaced in’11 according to report in America — fans the flames in the region. Not a justification for developing nuclear weapons, but……
I know there is already organizing for some protest before things go too far, but after all those letters and Washington trips before and at the beginning of the Iraqi conflict, I am at a loss how to be effective…
This week I wrote to my senators and congressman about the bishops’ complaint. Sen. Vitter (yeah, him, of all people) actually replied, and it looks a bit like maybe he actually read my email. It wasn’t a form email — i took the trouble to spell out why I think as I do.
So maybe it would help a bit to write to your representatives, giving your reasons. Couldn’t hurt. I will.
Margaret’s idea of a march on Washington by the wounded–in the body and all in the mind– is superb!