The Game of War
Not the card game!
Iran has been conducting its war games in and near the Straits of Hormuz with the accompanying chest thumping and threats (which we hope are idle threats). Now the U.S. and Israel are doing their own war games, a defense missile drill. A short piece in the Times.
The Jerusalem Post has the critical details: “The drill, which is unprecedented in its size, will include the establishment of US command posts in Israel and IDF command posts at EUCOM headquarters in Germany – with the ultimate goal of establishing joint task forces in the event of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.”
It appears that thousands of U.S. troops will deploy to Israel for this game, and that some Israelis (IDF???) will deploy to U.S. bases in Germany. Hmmm!
“Austere Challenge ’12″ could just as well describe the chill between the Obama and the Netanyahu administrations.
What’s AIPAC’s role in this “game”?
Let’s all pray this does not go too far.
Anyone ever read a history about how WWI began?
Fareed Zakaria’s take is interesting: he sees the developing crisis as a sign of Iranian internal political weakness, and cautions that this potential instability shouldn’t comfort us.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/irans-growing-state-of-desperation/2012/01/04/gIQA6usPbP_story.html
The Revolutionary Guards sound like the best organized and resourced group in Iran. Will they “save” their country by pursuing a war?
Margaret – WWI start – of course, the classic, Barbara Tuchman’s “The Guns of August”.
If you want more resources about how not to pour gasoline on a bad situation:
“Triumph Forsaken: The Vietnam War, 1954-1965″ by Mark Moyar
Fiction but excellent on causes of WWI – “August, 1914″ by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
For the US to get involved the White House would need to sell it as the blatant liars at the former WH did to invade Iraq. After two unproductive wars this would be a very hard sell. I guess it would be a distraction for leaders who have led us into the Great recession.
Fred Ikle’s “Every War Must End” (1971) belongs high on the reading list. Starting from the fact in his title, Ikle describes the difficulties commonly encountered in ending wars that were easy to start and the lesson that the military should prepare a war’s exit strategy in advance.
http://www.amazon.com/Every-War-Must-Columbia-Classics/dp/0231136676/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1325801469&sr=1-1
Zakaria thinks that Iran is sabre-rattling. He says the economic sanctions are affecting the country deeply, and Iran simply cannot afford to shut down the Straits of Hormuz — it has to keep its oil industry going.. But he thinks the situation is unstable and therefore dangerous.
He also says that the U. S. doesn’t buy oil from Iran, which I didn’t know. It is Europe which is so dependent on that country. I suppose that gives us some leverage in the area that the Europeans don’t have.
Hi, Ann, if the Europeans are Iran’s best customers, then presumably Europe would have tremendous economic leverage.
Wouldn’t it be a blessing if diplomacy and sanctions work to bring about a stabler and saner Iranian regime, with no shots fired or blood shed.
If we get into another war, Obama will be run out of town on a rail and Rand Paul will be a shoo-in.
Er, Ron Paul? Whoever – the libertarian – no foreign entanglements.
Or maybe Mitt Romney? Rick Santorum? Who have promised to bomb Iran back into the stone age!
Keeping in mind the advice of Sun Tzu (c. 600BC), “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill,” note that the US Navy yesterday rescued 13 _Iranian_ fishermen who were being held hostage by pirates in the Arabian Sea,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16447862
Bravo!
Well, it would be one way to bolster the economy by keeping it on a war footing! Guaranteed employment for even more mercenaries. It might even necessitate the reintroduction of consciprtion.
Happy days could be here again.
Jimmy, you mean with conscription would come a vigorous anti-war movement?
Excellent reason to vote against both. But not a reason to vote for Obama, who seems perfectly amenable to using violence wherever politically useful. Sigh. Are any prospective candidates (besides Jonathan Paul) speaking up for turning down the bellicosity thermostat?