Iran and the Bomb: A realist view…
November 17, 2011, 2:42 pm
Posted by Margaret O'Brien Steinfels
…and also realistic! Stephen Walt offers this view (let’s call it the sane view) of Iran, the Bomb, and diplomacy. Here. “Stopping an Iranian Bomb”
Hi, Margaret, that is some rational analysis. Let us hope that rational analysis carries the day in Iran!
That is rational analysis.. add the question.. How many bombs does Israel have?. 25? 50?100? How long would Israelis wait for forensic analysis it they were hit by a terrorist nuke?. How many Israeli planes would get to Tehran, with how many nukes?
Iran, if wise should tell itself we have enough conventional power forever.
Let us hope the rational analysis extends not only to Iran, but to Israel; and of course to the U.S.
How many nuclear bombs does Israel have? Shhh, it’s a secret that they have nuclear weapons. But the best guess seems to be in the several hundreds. But remember, it’s a secret!
Ugh – Now that we are finally leaving Iraq, the war profiteers would like to start up another one?
I never get over the meals contract; $10 per plate is reasonable enough, but then crank the numbers; $10 per plate x 300,000 troops x 3 meals per day = $9,000,000 per day; $3,285,000,000 each year – just for food. There is also the motor pool contract, the laundry contract, not to mention transport, medical, engineering, electric work, etc..
I am no dove, but before we allow our government to move that travelling road show to Tehran, someone should point out that folks, Iranian bomb or no bomb, we are strapped for cash – really.
We don’t do anything about Pakistan, India, and North Korea having A-bombs, but we are supposed to rouse the troops, risk their lives again, and finance an invasion of Iran?
If Iran getting the bomb is that big of a deal, tell the UN; let the Chinese, or the Russians, or the Europeans, or the Arabs do something about it.
I can only imagine how little the Argentines care about this one!
:-)
Isn’t Iran a bigger threat to Russia than to us; I guess that’s why the Russians do the carrot and stick trick with them instead of threatening to bomb. Didn’t we use to know that trick ourselves?
Most of Cold War deterrence is a bad example from which to learn for Iran because of the essential differences in fundamental circumstances. One useful point, however, is raised by David Ignatius recalling Kennedy’s thinking on the Oct 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Rather than adopting a “bomb or lose” view of his problem, he recognized a continuum of power along which he could operate, which worked. Bombing was the last choice and only if all else failed. (WaPo p.A27 11/17/11)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/gops-loose-lips-sinking-their-covert-options/2011/11/15/gIQADgLXSN_story.html
Other useful snippets on deterrence are in the recent obituary of Fred Ikle, a principal contributor to Cold War strategic thinking (WaPo p.B7, 11/16/11). One of his contributions on war should be required reading still for anyone who cares about the subject, preferably before starting one: “Every War Must End” (1971). Note how little attention is paid to that apparently inescapable fact of life in the ongoing discussions of Iran.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/fred-charles-ikle-reagan-administration-defense-official-dies-at-87/2011/11/11/gIQA5AlzQN_story.html
I just this minute added the below comment to the AMERICA issue,
Remarkable co-ordination in both magazines!
God be will us! Something is happening!
5. Amen!
A bit late, but better late than……
The best in-depth analysis available is from STEPHEN WALT…. a few days ago in Foreign Policy.
But be prepaed, oh, stalwart AMERICA staff! The agitprop of the Lobby’s hysteria is about to begin. Remember how they piled on Father Ray Schroth for having the gall of proposing a one-state solution.
Hang it there!
Especially….. for the our children and the children in Israel- who are led around by the fanatics in the War Party.
By Don Brady on November 19, 2011 at 1:22 AM