Is it working?
The San Francisco Chronicle had an article up a couple of days ago about the impact of the “surge” of U.S. forces in Iraq:
Some analysts believe that the United States is merely helping warring factions arm themselves during a lull in violence that will explode again once the surge ends as planned by summer – around the time Democrats and Republicans hold their national party conventions. Others say Iraq is on the brink of a long-sought cease-fire that will allow the U.S. military to serve as a classic peacekeeping force stabilizing Iraq and the region.
There is no question that violence in Iraq has ebbed since the troop surge announced by Bush in January reached its full capacity in June with about 162,000 troops. Even Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., chairman of the House subcommittee that controls defense spending, a key ally of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, and a leading Democratic opponent of the war, recently returned from Iraq saying, “I think the surge is working.”
Violence has receded to the levels of January 2006, before the bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra set off a sectarian civil war between Shiites and Sunni. By many accounts, al Qaeda in Iraq has been hammered. Sunni tribes, many of them former insurgents, have turned against al Qaeda in Iraq in what is called the Sunni awakening.
Does this moderate degree of progress on the military front change anyone’s thinking about the appropriate timetable for the withdrawl of U.S. forces?
Any reduction in violence and loss of life is good, of course.
But whether you can call it “progress” in an enterprise i think was sick to begin with is a debatable point.
A photojournalist who took pictures of Iraqis in some of the worst-shelled areas recently put up a display in our building.
They are mostly pictures of women and children. One woman is serving tea to friends–with a gaping hole in her living room wall. Some kids are playing in a makeshift playground strewn with tires that have now become playthings, a family eats a sit-down meal in candlelight because there’s no electricity.
In these children you see the people who will eventually re-build Iraq. And in the pictures you see the mothers attempting to instill a sense of order and civilization in the chaos.
If there is any progress in Iraq, I submit it lies in these persevering women and the values they are trying to instill in their children in this horrendous landscape.
Apologies in that that isn’t the politically astute answer you wanted.
No, the surge has not changed my mind. Sen. Biden’s approach still makes most sense to me. Nonetheless, I do admit that I have no special expertise in this matter.
Today’s NYTimes points out that many of the “insurgents” have moved north to Mosul and environs. Juan Cole on his blog regularly reminds its readers that the current lull may be due to the “time-out” called by the Mahdi army (al Sadr). Until there is some real efforts at a political agreement, I don’t see how the U.S. military surge will end the violence. Instead, a variety of factions are biding their time to see where things fall out.
In the meantime, the Bush Administrations is laying the ground for permanent bases and I don’t see any of the current crop of presidential candidates reversing that, including Mr. Obama, should he be elected. Also note, that Secretary Gates has turned down the Marine’s request to move their forces to Afghanistan and out of Anbar province. If Iraq is put on permanent lock-down by U.S. forces and whatever Iraqi militias that go along with it, then I don’t see how this is “progress.”
Here’s an article by Juan Cole on this very subject in Salon.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/12/04/iraq/
Unagidon, thanks for that specific cite; well worth a read. Cole’s essay leads off with Jim Webb on Tim Russert last Sunday. Webb, just returned from Iraq, was very careful to report what we saw–and did not use the work “progress.” If there is no movement on the political front, how can there be “progress.”
unagidon’s salon reference led me to an ad for ken burns war which i couldn’t get out of. anybody else?
Mary–
About five seconds into the ad “Enter Salon” will pop up in the upper right corner of the ad. Click on that pop up and you’re in. I’m a luddite, so if I can do it, anybody can. As noted above, the article is worth the read.